Over the Rainbow Results Oct 29

Well, I was, again, 1 for 2 in choosing who would be in the bottom two, and correctly predicted that Colleen would be going home. Because the judges weren’t going to let the opportunity to send Colleen home pass them by when given the chance.

But AJ being in the bottom two was very surprising to me. Last week, I was 1 for 2 in predicting who would go home by following the algorithm that the person in the bottom two last week would be in it again. This week, I ran the same algorithm, but Stephanie didn’t end up in the bottom two. I can only think of three reasons why that might be the case, and all of them have implications for the final showdown where Canada will choose Dorothy:

1) She picked up a significantly larger number of votes from Cassandra’s fans than the other girls.

2) Her dedicated fans are lazy, and needed the prod of her almost going home to actually vote for her en mass.

3) There is a significant number of voters who vote based on the performances and not on their overall favourite. To put it in election terms, there is a significant “swing vote”.

If 1) is true, then picking up Colleen’s fans will be a critical factor in determining who wins. If 2) is true, Stephanie needs them to show up again if she wants to win, and AJ will not win the competition (Stephanie’s breaking of the “bottom two” algorithm was a specific case and not general). If 3) is true, then each girl will have to nail it to win it all, which would make for the most interesting finish.

On the sing-off itself, both AJ and Colleen improved, but didn’t quite solve their problems. AJ runs the risk of being the musical theatre equivalent of a ham, because her gestures and facial expressions are so forceful that they become obvious, even when she might want to be more subtle. Colleen, however, still has a problem expressing what the song is trying to convey, although she sings beautifully.

Out of the final three, then, the main issues they have are:

1) Danielle … well, she doesn’t have any serious problems. Maybe her age will make it hard for her to play a young role.

2) Stephanie needs to sing to the audience in the slow, dramatic songs, and not the rafters. It gives an angelic, hopeful look to her, but that’s not always appropriate.

3) AJ needs to demonstrate subtlety.

That being said, they’re all wonderful singers and all of them can act, so it will be interesting to see who finally wins.

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